Now Dick Cheney AND Porter Goss know where bin Laden is.

What makes this interesting is that Goss last week basically said that they know exactly where bin Laden is, but that considerations for the country where he make it impossible to go get him.

Hmm . . . Let's ponder this a minute. Consider the countries where he could be:

1. Afghanistan. No brainer. Go get him. Call it that. So he ain't there.

2. Uzbekistan, Kyrghyzstan, Turkmenistan, rest of central Asia. Couldn't stop us if they wanted to.

3. Pakistan. Would be glad for OBL to be gone. Might go get him themselves. US commandoes operate there anyhow.

4. Indian Kashmir. Well, fuck, India would be plain giddy to go get bin Laden.

5. Iran. The Bushies wouldn't pass up the chance to accuse Iran of harboring OBL.

6. Russia. Putin would be even happier than the Indian gov't to hand OBL over to the US on a silver platter.

That leaves two places: Saudi Arabia or China.

Saudi Arabia makes too much sense. Likewise, the Saudis would be tempted to tip us and OBL off at the same time to make him flee and then stand there going, "Oopsies!" The Saudis I don't think could long stand bin Laden's presence anyhow, since it would make them look like shit as rumor got out that he was there. It would exist as a threat to the Saud family's authority. Eventually, al-Qaeda would establish itself as a parallel government. The Sauds are jealous and mean rulers. Don't bet on them tolerating any threat too long.

The old conspiracy theory is that OBL is in Xinjiang, the Muslim NW frontier of China. Interestingly, terror attacks in Xinjiang have fallen off since OBL fled Afghanistan. This, IMO, is the most likely place OBL is. I believe he is in Xinjiang with the tacit approval of the Chinese government.

Why?

Because China is the only country that the US would not even venture a small CIA or commando op into. China is the one country that America would be afraid of even public humiliating as the harborer of bin Laden. BEtween the economic and military fears regarding China, the United States would want no part of the Chinese, even if it meant avenging the worst foreign attack on US soil ever.

Plus, it's the kind of snippy, miserable "fuck you" that is typical of Chinese policy. The Chinese love to fuck with their enemies. The main goal of any Chinese policy is to breed crippling uncertainty in the efforts of all who oppose them.

Harboring bin Laden would certainly serve this purpose.

The Chinese have nothing to lose and everything to gain. A long-term US defeat in the Middle East is an essential next step in China's economic expansion. The Chinese want unmitigated access to Middle Eastern oil. A militarily defeated US could no longer project power in the Middle East, leaving China in the strongest position of any international power.

China's long-term goal is to build overland pipelines through central Asia. This is one of the goals behind the efforts to acquire Unocal, which already controls a number of overland pipelines in the region. Likewise, overland pipelines would bring oil to China through countries that are easier to influence than those on the sea lanes (since the Indian Ocean is dominated by US and Indian naval airpower). It would negate US warplans that focus on fighting a coastal war with China, by forcing the US into a fight in central Asia.

It is an audacious plan. A plan so audacious, in fact, that only China would be willing to get into. The Chinese love their proxy wars, and it suits them to watch the US wane in years of warfare in the Middle East.

Which, brings us back to why is it very possible that China is harboring al-Qaeda leaders.

The Chinese could care less who runs the Middle East or Central Asia, just as long as they deliver the goods. Likewise, al-Qaeda isn't going to bat an eyelash at using the Chinese to defeat the Americans, just as the mujihideen didn't flinch at using the Americans to defeat the Soviets.

Al-Qaeda has become expert at playing the middle in the superpower grand game.

There is little reason to believe they aren't doing it right now.