Is it impending doom, or are the Steelers just deep in the playoffs?
I hate to say it, but Bill Cowher's teams have shit the bed so many times late in the season that I refuse to believe any of it until the gun has sounded.
Pittsburgh's 3-4 will hold decently against Seattle's run. I could see Shaun Alexander getting 100 yards and Seattle losing.
I am very, very not sold on Matt Hasselbeck. He stinks of something between Neil O'Donnell and Jim Kelly.
I am sold on Ben Roethlisberger. I was sold on him during the fourth quarter of the AFC Championship last year against New England as he kept mounting drives even though the Pats had clearly won the contest. It was impressive.
I am intrigued to see Willie Parker with another chance indoors. Will Seattle key on Willie the way the AFC teams did in the playoffs? After that screen pass for the TD against Cincy, Willie Parker became THE guy to shut down.
How about Heath Miller on Lofa Tatupu?
Mosi Tatupu's kid. Remember, Mosi was on the Pats squad that was brutally ass-raped by the Bears in 85.
I haven't seen a lot of Seattle games, and the ones I did see, I wasn't impressed with Tatupu. He's the defensive equivalent of his dad, as best I can see.
An intriguing thought about Tatupu: all his big stats come when his team is trailing. What does it mean? To me, it sounds like he can't close.
The other horrifying thing was to see how many games Seattle trailed this year. Hmmm. Something to consider in light of their playing in the NFC.
Tatupu didn't record a single sack or interception while his team was ahead or tied. Likewise, easily half his tackles came while his team was trailing (not a surprising stat, given that teams usully run the ball more with a lead, yielding more tackles -- don't forget that Hardy Nickerson's 200 tackle season was on a Bucs team that never had a lead).
Oddly, Tatupu also seems to fade down the stretch in games. Something to ponder.
I don't see Tatupu being Seattle's Polamolu, to be blunt. The media is full of shit on this front. Polamolu ices games. He closes games. He intercepts Mannings.
It ain't there for Tatupu.
I also think Joey Porter is going to get his come-uppance at the hands of Walter Jones. Jones is a rangy, athletic tackle. Porter is going to have to bull rush him to do real damage.
On the other side of the equation, the hidden hero for Pittsburgh is Aaron Smith. While Seattle has wasted a lot of time looking at Porter and Polamolu, they seem to have overlooked the best three man line in pro football (and a hell of a four man line, too, when Porter puts his hand on the ground). Smith, Von Oelhoffen, and Hampton beat the living shit out of other teams. Also, unlike many three man lines, they get penetration and make tackles in the backfield.
And anyone who has missed James Farrior's 2005 season missed a clinic. Farrior is simply amazing when he's on the top of his game. He's a disciplined version of Chad Brown or Kendrell Bell. He's an athletic version of Livan Kirkland. He in the best middle backer Cowher has had -- bar none.
And, Larry Foote deserves some credit, although it's worth noting he gets the joy of playing kamikaze ILB posiiton in a 3-4. Basically, he runs around every where, and is generally the least talented backer in the most masked position.
Clark Haggans -- overrated.
Chris Hope is a hell of a free safety -- especially when you consider he lives on an island while Polamolu attacks the line. Hope doesn't get the credit he deserves for a doing a thankless job while Polamolu gets to be King Cool.
Ike Taylor deserves a nod. Big corners usually haven't performed well under the new rules. And the Steelers platoon at the other corner . . . well . . . I wish Cowher would lett McFadden hold that down. DeShea Townsend scares the shit out me on that corner.
Did I mention I haven't watched much Seattle this year?
Well, I'm not sold Seattle's offense can dismantle Pittsburgh. The Steelers need to accept the reality of Shaun Alendar, and focus on shutting down Hasselbecks receivers.
Hasselbeck is a career mouthy asshole, and I suspect some tight coverage would kill any relationship his does have with a corps of mediocre receivers.
And shit -- Bobby Engram is still playing football. At least someone from that 1995 Penn State undefeated went on to contribute in the NFL (saving, of course, Kerry Collins' contributions to race relations). Of course, Ki-Jana Carter had bum knees -- maybe the Willie Parker plan isn't so bad.
Predictions?
Shit. I hate predicting the Super Bowl.
It's usually a blow-out.
I like Pittsburgh by nine. I could see Seattle sputtering all day to pass and eventually giving up on a successful ground game. Maybe something to the order of Pittsburgh 26, Seattle 17?
If Seattle goes over 20, Pittsburgh will have a hard time winning. The only way I see a huge blow out is if Heath Miller overmatches Tatupu. I haven't seen Tatupu's tape against someone like Shockey, so I'm reluctant.
I'm also quick to add he had one of his biggest games against San Fran -- big fucking deal.
If it gets as bad as the Denver and Indy games, it's because Seattle overcommits to blitzing and Miller goes apeshit and helps Roethlisberger to an MVP game.
I don't see that happening. Homgren plays the chess match better than anyone. Even with inferior personnel.
I like Pittsburgh to go up early, maybe 26-10 at some point in the third quarter.
But, my mind versus my gut tells me something else.
The Super Bowl -- at least those not involving Bill Belicheck or Kurt Warner -- is all about the 2d quarter.
Just generically betting, I'd see Roethlisberger having the best potential for a Doug Williams type second quarter.
Then again, the stat sheet says Tatupu's best quarter is . . .?
I say Seattle goes up 7-0 on an Alexander run in the first.
Pittsburgh responds with a field goal.
Seattle drives, gets stoned, kicks. 10-3.
Roethlisberger has his MVP 2d quarter. Miller makes many big catches. Ward clinches one drive. Willie Parker break a big screen pass, maybe an outside run, also. Willie or Ben runs on in. Another drives stalls. Pittsbrgh goes up 20-10.
Seattle drives, but coughs the ball up.
Pittsburgh claims a field goal before half.
Pittsburgh drives again in the third. 26-10.
Seattle languishes. Several drives abort. Hasselbeck goes apesht. Holmgren starts throwing everything at Pittsburgh. Somewhere around 10:00 left in the fourth, Seattle scores. Big pass to Joe Jurevicius or Darrel Jackson. 41-yarder, to be exact.
Seattle's hopes rise. Holmgren bets the odds, and kicks off trailing by 9. Pittsburgh's O gets a couple downs buts gives it back to Seattle on the 35 after a punt with 5:36 remaining.
Tragedy strikes! Polamolua picks off Hasselbeck.
Seattles stones Pittsburgh again, gets the ball at their 20 after a tocuhback.
Seattle drives to the Pittsburgh forty, but the clock keeps ticking. Four downs and they shit the bed with 1:30 left and all three timeots in hand.
Pittsburgh runs. Gets first down on first play with an offtackle run to Willie Parker.
All hell breaks loose. Worst fight in the history of the Super Bowl after Max Starks accidentally eats Lofa Tatupu.
Pittsburgh runs it. Seattles calls timeouts. Game ends with Pittsburgh in posession.
Ben Roethlisberger becomes the dopiest goober to ever become famous.
The beard curse ends.